Durham, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

340
FXUS62 KRAH 251052
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
655 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Greatest rain chances remain focused from this evening through Sun
  morning, although patchy rain may linger over the N and E through
  Sun afternoon.

* Sunday high temps continue to trend cooler, especially over the NE
  CWA behind the backdoor front.

* Shower/storm chances are increasing for Wed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

1) Much above normal temps persist today. Fairly low RH and ongoing
dry fuels will lead to an Increased Fire Danger across south-central
NC today.

2) High chances for measurable rain persist for later today through
at least Sun morning. Expected amounts have increased a bit from
yesterday, but this rain is unlikely to significantly improve our
worsening drought.

3) Needed shower chances continue this upcoming week. Temperatures
will be cool to start the week, then moderate followed by more cool
weather late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Much above normal temps persist today. Fairly low
RH and ongoing dry fuels will lead to an Increased Fire Danger across
south-central NC today.

Warm and deep high pressure will hold over the Southeast coast
today, yielding low level thicknesses that remain around 25 m above
normal. This will again favor highs in the mid 80s to near 90,
although increasing afternoon clouds in the W CWA will lower
insolation a bit there during the peak heating of the day. Despite
this early season heat, our records should not be threatened (record
highs today are 93 at RDU and 94 at FAY, both set in 1925). Heat
Risk tied to these high temps remains a Level 2-of-4/Moderate today.

Due to the low level ridging spanning to our S, we`ll continue to
lack a tap of high low-level moisture into the area today, resulting
in min dewpoints in the mid 40s to around 50 over much of the area.
These values, along with the warm temps, will result in min RH
values in the 25-35% range across the S, and in combination with
very dry fine fuels and infrequent gusts up to 15-20 mph today will
support an Increased Fire Danger over our southern sections today. A
statewide burn ban remains in effect until further notice.


KEY MESSAGE 2... High chances for measurable rain persist for later
today through at least Sun morning. Expected amounts have increased
a bit from yesterday, but this rain is unlikely to significantly
improve our worsening drought.

Our rain chances continue to focus on a now-weak but amplifying
shortwave trough now over the Great Lakes into the Mid Miss Valley.
This wave, accompanied by surface low pressure, will track ESE
across the Appalachians and over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
today through tonight, gradually amplifying as it pushes slowly SE
through NC then to our S and E through Sun. Low level moisture
influx will remain limited with this wave through early Sun, with
moisture largely confined to the mid levels, and while our chance
for showers will ramp up later today and peak this evening and
overnight, the modest low level moisture availability will somewhat
limit precip amounts through this time frame. As the wave pushes
gradually to our S and E Sun morning, the surface low will push off
the Mid Atlantic coast and deepen, and the resulting strengthening
NNE flow around the low will help push the backdoor front southward
through our area Sun with the arrival of low cloudiness. While the
initial round of showers and isolated storms is expected to push
into our SE sections Sun morning, additional rain along the backdoor
front could bring another uptick in pops through the day, mainly
over N and E sections. Expected storm total rainfall amounts have
gone up since yesterday but still sit at around a half to three-
quarters of an inch, certainly welcome but not enough to
significantly curtail our ongoing drought. Regarding thunder
chances, forecast MUCAPE values are pretty meager, generally under
250 J/kg, albeit with decent deep layer bulk shear around 30 kts.
Expect any storms to be scattered at most and disorganized, with a
very low chance of strong storms.

The aforementioned deepening low off the coast and southward-pushing
backdoor front will usher in cooler temperatures from the NNE Sun,
as the cooler air mass wedges in from the NNE. Western and southern
portions of central NC may see enough heating ahead of the front for
highs in the mid to upper 70s, but with the earlier arrival of
cooler air in the NE, highs from the Triangle region to the N and E
are likely to be only in the mid-upper 60s, and the extreme NE CWA
may see temps falling into the low 60s, with abundant post-frontal
low cloudiness and gusty NE winds.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Needed shower chances continue this upcoming week.
Temperatures will be cool to start the week, then moderate followed
by more cool weather late in the week.

The next chance of showers after this weekend will likely come on
Tuesday. However, it appears the model trends have been lower and
lower on the chance of any meaningful rain Tuesday. There is another
chance Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by another chance
Friday into next weekend.

Temperatures this week will start off cooler, with near normal
readings in the lower 70s. Mid-week should feature a moderating
trend back into the mid 70s to lower 80s by Wednesday. This should
be followed by chilly high pressure that should build down into the
region from the Upper Midwest late in the week. Much cooler air will
be associated with this high pressure, and it could be even cooler
if a system develops near the Gulf Coast and moves toward the
Carolina coast late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 655 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to hold over central NC through at least
this evening, although mid and high clouds will steadily increase
from the west starting later this morning, as a front approaches our
area from the NW. Skies will become bkn-ovc with bases lowering to 7-
9kft AGL, persisting through sunset, as sct showers move in from the
W, reaching INT/GSO soon after 20z, RDU around 22z, and FAY/RWI
after 00z, although vsbys should stay VFR through at least 06z. As a
backdoor front drops N to S into NC late tonight, sub-VFR cigs will
move in from the N, affecting RWI first, then RDU/FAY, with mainly
MVFR cigs after 08z. Surface winds will be mostly from the SW or WSW
under 10 kts, except around 10-12 kts with infrequent gusts to 15-18
kts 15z-22z.

Looking beyond 12z Sun, behind the backdoor front, sub-VFR cigs will
dominate much of Sun and Sun night, with the lowest cigs at RWI and
RDU, and patchy light rain is expected, especially at RDU/RWI. VFR
conditions should return briefly for Mon, but another round of low
cigs is possible Mon night into Tue. Rain chances and potential sub-
VFR conditions will return Wed.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Badgett
AVIATION...Hartfield